INR Midterm Review

1.

1 point

how many types of group thinking are there?

3

6

5

4

2.

1 point

match why each option was rejected

1 (do nothing)
2 (diplomatic pressures)
3 (secret approach to castro)
4 (invasion)
5 (surgical air strike)

A) soviet union's missile capability would be doubled and us early warning system outflanked, no american commitment would be credible.

B)confront 20,000 soviets, nuclear disaster (us casualties).

c)drawbacks us withdrawal from guantanamo base and withdrawal jupiter missiles from turkey or italy.
russians could veto any proposed action.

D)could not guarantee destruction of all missiles, kill russians that would later retaliate, reverse pearl harbor

E) Castro had no say, soviet decision since soviet troops transported, guarded, controlled the missiles.

1. A 2.C 3.E 4.B 5.D

1. B 2.C 3.E 4.A 5.D

1. E 2.D 3.A 4.B 5.C

1. A 2.C 3.D 4.B 5.E

3.

1 point

what is type 2 of group thinking?

over estimations of the group - its power and morality

closed-mindedness

pressures toward uniformity

An illusion of invulnerability - excessive optimism, members take extreme risks

4.

1 point

latitude is measured in degrees ____ or ____ of the equator, which is __ degrees

choose all that apply.

south

60 degrees

0 degrees

180 degrees

90 degrees

north

west

east

5.

1 point

what is level 3 of decision making analysis

organizations (formal structure)

corporations

groups (informal structure)

individuals

6.

1 point

what is prospect theory

(framing) substantial effect on and individuals propensity to take risk. framing situations in terms of loss causes individuals to take more risks.

assuming a correlation between two variables that in fact have no relationship leads to decisions not based on actual facts.

effect of measuring significance in relation to an initial reference point, allowing rp to distort estimates.

small change in wording (framing) substantial effect on and individuals propensity to take risk. framing situations in terms of loss causes individuals to take more risks.

7.

1 point

what is The prisoner’s dilemma?

When you get so close to a goal you have been putting a lot of effort into, it is hard to turn back around.

Two-person bi-modal game when cooperation is not possible and cannot be guaranteed to be carried out

the expected outcome or value is the product of the likelihood of the event happening times the value if the event happens

The application of framing analysis which indicates that a small change in wording has a substantial effect on an individual’s propensity to take risk.

8.

1 point

what is Type I of group thinking?

pressures toward uniformity

The emergence of self appointed mindquards

over estimations of the group - its power and morality

closed-mindedness

9.

1 point

match def with word
1. sunk-cost effect
2. availability bias
3. recent effect
4. overconfidence bias
5. confirmation bias
6. anchoring bias

a) escalate commitment to failing course due to invested amount of time or resources.

b) relying on available or seeking easily available information

C)tendency to gather and rely on information that confirms our existing views. discounting information opposes our views.

D)tendency to overweigh recently received data

E)effect of measuring significance in relation to an initial reference point, allowing rp to distort estimates.

F) bias overconfident in own judgement

1. E 2.D 3.B 4.C 5.F 6.A

1. A 2.B 3.F 4.D 5.E 6.C

1. A 2.B 3.D 4.F 5.C 6.E

1. B 2.C 3.D 4.A 5.C 6.E

10.

1 point

Type I of group thinking is: over estimations of the group - its power and morality.. what are the categories that fall below this?

Collective efforts to rationalize to discount warnings

A unquestioned belief in the group's inherent morality, inclining members to ignore morality

An illusion of invulnerability - excessive optimism, members take extreme risks

Shared illusion of unanimity (including taking silence as agreement)

11.

1 point

what are the effects for group thinking?

value of cooperation, difficulty of cooperation, risk of action based on assumed, but non-assured, cooperation. the need for verification/ guarantee of cooperation, trust but verify- president reagan.

cohesion of group, insulation of group, lack of tradition of impartial leadership, lack of norms for methodological procedures for decisionmaking tasks.

poor analysis of alternative/ and of objectives, failure to examine risks/ and to consider initial rejections, poor information search, bias in information processing, failure to consider contingency plans.

rationality limit of time and information

12.

1 point

what were the changes made by kennedy make to CIA plan that was first presented to him, and what were the effects of these damages

go back

he changed the location from the mountains to the bay of pigs. Canceled air strikes and support that morning.

go back

go backkk

13.

1 point

decisions are a process rather than an a event?

True

False

14.

1 point

this is all part of?
Military bias in favor of the offense: offensive doctrines-
1) enhance the power and size of military organizations
2) tend to promote military autonomy. defense can lead to include civilians and conflict on own soil
3) enhance the prestige and self-image of military forces.
4) structure military campaigns in favorable ways. principle of initiative "element of surprise"
5) the effect that military officer's training and duties have on their beliefs about the need for decisive military operations that tend to be offensive in nature.
seeing war as more likely increases its likelihood by adopting offensive plans.

(recognize)
ex. Offensive strategy of the schlieffen plan was adopted by germany and prussian generals staff's bias because offensive strategy promoted their power, prestige and autonomy.

prospect theory

organizational biases

decision processes

myths regarding decision making

15.

1 point

the international date line is how many degrees?

60

180

360

0

90

16.

1 point

process of knowing in the broadest sense including perception, memory, judgement.

cognitive biases

cognition

confirmation bias

common bias

17.

1 point

methods for improving decision making/policymaking are? choose all that apply

framing analysis which indicates that a small change

thorough examination of questions and answers

Placement: Locate individuals/institutions based one: time-lines, event histories, actor’s history, and actor’s SOPs/biases

The Goldberg rule: Ask whats the story, not whats the problem

KLP/LD: Identify and explore: “Known” ”unknowns” ”presumptions” ”likeliness” ”differences”

Journalist’s questions: when, what, where, who, how, why

Predictions/estimates: Explore exact meaning of probability estimates

Alexander’s question: ask what new data would change about a judgement or prediction

18.

1 point

the meridians are numbered from _________ which is labeled _____ degrees

prime meridians, 360

length, 90

length, 0

prime meridians, 90

length, 360

prime meridians, 0

19.

1 point

planning for covert guerrilla infiltration, insurgent, destabilizing operations ( not conventional operation/ planning only)
Cia transforms planning to include conventional-type open invasion by exile cubans

became common knowledge among Cuban exiles in Miami

This occurred under which president

Eisenhower

Kennedy

Reagan

20.

1 point

what falls below closed-mindedness?

choose all that apply?

An illusion of invulnerability - excessive optimism, members take extreme risks

A unquestioned belief in the group's inherent morality, inclining members to ignore morality

Direct-pressure against members asserting position against group loyalty

Stereotyping enemies/opponents as unworthy or evil

Collective efforts to rationalize to discount warnings

21.

1 point

Decision making traps or distortions that afflict individuals in decisionmaking. Such biases are derived from cognitive limitations which are characteristics of all human beings is?

Cognitive biases

Cognitive dissonance

Sunk-cost effect

Rational decision

22.

1 point

what are the 6 unexamined presumptions on which the decisions to approve ?

two organizational: the CIA had generous capabilities while Castro’s still were unlimited, especially in the air.

Two substantive: Bissel’s Cubans were not to be disposed of, there or here, and that Cubans on the island would be happily rid of Castro

i. Two organizational: the CIA had generous capabilities while Castro’s still were limited, especially in the air.

iii. Justifying two-some: Castro was Moscow’s tool, only 90 miles away, and he was taking cuba away from us

iii. Justifying two-some: Castro was Moscow’s tool, only 100 miles away, and he was taking cuba away from us

ii. Two substantive: Bissel’s Cubans had to be disposed of, there or here, and that Cubans on the island would be happily rid of Castro

23.

1 point

in any circle or sphere there are _____ degrees of longitude?

360

90

180

0

24.

1 point

what are Tests to improve policy decision making

What do the odds mean

Ask what will new data change about the prediction

military action

rational thinking

both A and B

both B and C

all of the above

25.

1 point

Parallels are

Mark all that apply

are lines of latitude used to measure location north or south of the equator

meet at the poles

are always the same distance apart (about 60 miles)

are all the same length

the equator, the longest parallel, is almost 25,000 miles long

differ in length

are always the same distance apart (about 70 miles)

26.

1 point

Meridians which is labeled 0 degrees, meridians east or west of the prime meridian are labeled E or W up to _____ degrees

90

180

60

70

27.

1 point

parallels are numbered from 0 degrees at the equator to ____ degrees N at the north Pole and ___ degrees S at the south pole

0

90

both answers 90

both answers 0

180

60

28.

1 point

what are the 3 models in decision making

rational analysis

conventional organization model

aristocratic process model

bureaucratic politics model:

organizational process model

29.

1 point

How many cognitive biases are there

10

5

12

30.

1 point

Meridians which is labeled 0 degrees, meridians east or west of the prime meridian are labeled _ or _ up to 180 degrees

north

east

west

south

31.

1 point

what is level 2 of decision making?

Groups (informal structure)

organizations (formal structure)

corporations

Individuals

32.

1 point

why was the analogy to the overthrow of the Guatemalan government not misleading and inappropriate?

Porous land frontier vs open beach

the country was trying to stabilize

150 guatemalans vs 2,000 cubans

Guatemala had low form of resources

Eisenhower never hid that he had no intention of keeping US military out

Guatemala was always a US operations

33.

1 point

what are the Antecedent conditions of groupthink?

choose all that apply?

Cohesion of group

Direct-pressure against members asserting position against group loyalty

Failure to consider contingency plans

Fail to examine risks

Lack of norms for methodological procedures for decision-making tasks

Lack of tradition of impartial leadership

Poor information search

Insulation of the group

34.

1 point

the international date line general follows the 180 ______

latitude

meridian

parallels

35.

1 point

what were the 4 options (including doing nothing) for policy towards Castro/Cuba in January 1961 (assuming the goal of eliminating Castro from power, without a Batista like replacement?)

Do nothing

Diplomatic and economic pressures only

Overt military action

enable force

political agreements of affairs

diplomatic security

covert action

36.

1 point

running from pole to pole, lines of longitude are called? they circle the globe in a north south direction

meridians

international date lines

parallels

latitude

37.

1 point

MATCH
rational actor model explains wwI, "balance of terror" as? and how did it have trouble explaining simultaneous soviet deployment of ABM systems?
match

1. rational actor model (morgenthau)
2.balance of terror
3. trouble explaining

A)origin in the fear of disturbance of power", gain decisive advantage and power in the balkans, rational discipline

B)rational: neither opponent can in striking 1st can destroy the other's ability to strike back, (mutual homicide).

C)trouble explaining simultaneous soviet deployment abm (anti-ballistic missile) systems and efforts to achieve detente: because
neither opponent can in striking 1st can destroy the other's ability to strike back, (mutual homicide).

1. A 2.B 3.C

1. A 2.C 3.B

1. B 2.C 3.A

1. C 2.A 3.B

38.

1 point

1. framing
2. prospect theory
3. illusory correlation
4. hindsight bias
5. egocentrism
6. reasoning by analogy

A) leads to error when similarity is assumed by comparing situations to draw decisions.

B). assuming a correlation between two variables that in fact have no relationship leads to decisions not based on actual facts.

C) assumptions and understanding of surrounding world, frame defines what is significant and irrelevant.

D) attributing more credit to oneself causes excessive valuation of one's own view in future decisions.

E) small change in wording (framing) substantial effect on and individuals propensity to take risk. framing situations in terms of loss causes individuals to take more risks.

F) tendency to judge past events as easily predictable, causes downplaying and failure to recognize future events.

1.C 2.E 3.B 4.F 5.D 6.A

1.A 2.C 3.E 4.D 5.F 6.B

1.D 2.E 3.A 4.F 5.C 6.B

1.E 2.C 3.F 4.B 5.A 6.D

39.

1 point

in a expected value theory the conclusions are?

expected values of all outcomes are the same;

framed as gain, people take less risk

alternative framing makes a difference in decision making.

framed as a loss, people take more risk

all of the above

40.

1 point

what is expected value theory?

Direct-pressure against members asserting position against group loyalty

the expected outcome or value is the product (multiplied) of the likelihood of the event happening times the value if the vent happens.

framing) substantial effect on and individuals propensity to take risk. framing situations in terms of loss causes individuals to take more risks.

Two-person bi-modal game when cooperation is not possible and cannot be guaranteed to be carried out

41.

1 point

meridians

check all that apply

are all the same length

are lines of latitude used to measure location north or south

are lines of longitude used to measure location east or west of the prime meridian

90 degrees S at the south pole

meet at the poles

differ in length

42.

1 point

main assumptions/ components of the rational actor model:

shows how the nation or gov could have chosen the action in question.

what goal was the gov persuing during act and how it was a reasonable choice

explaining simultaneous soviet deployment abm (anti-ballistic missile) systems and efforts to achieve detente:

important events have important causes.

43.

1 point

what is type 3 of group thinking?

pressures toward uniformity

over estimations of the group - its power and morality

closed-mindedness

Collective efforts to rationalize to discount warnings

44.

1 point

Halfway between the poles of the _______ circle the globe in an east-west direction ?

equator

longitude

latitude

parallel

46.

1 point

How did the the plan to use the cuban exiles to destabilize or overthrow the Castro regime in Cuba change from the planning approved by President Eisenhower to another plan father kennedy was elected?

go backkkkkk

go backkkk

47.

1 point

what is level 1 of decision making?

Individuals

Groups (informal structure)

Organizations (Formal structure)

corporations

48.

1 point

Self-censorship of deviation from consensus
Shared illusion of unanimity (including taking silence as agreement)
Direct-pressure against members asserting position against group loyalty
The emergence of self appointed mind-guards

this is all part of?

over estimations of the group - its power and morality

Poor analysis

closed-mindedness

pressures toward uniformity

49.

1 point

lines of latitude are called

50.

1 point

in the cuban missile crisis why was option 1 and 2 rejected
6 options were: 1) do nothing
2) Diplomatic pressures
3) A secret approach to castro
4) Invasion
5) Surgical air strike
6) Blockade

(do nothing was rejected because) : it underestimates the military importance of the soviet move

to arraign the soviet union before the U.N security council held little promise since the Russians could veto any proposed action. While the diplomats argued the missles would have become operational

Soviet troops transported, constructed, guarded, and controlled the missiles. Their removal would thus depend on soviet decision

l